WEBVTT

00:00:01.300 --> 00:00:05.001
A performance number becomes useful when you know how it was produced.

00:00:05.001 --> 00:00:08.703
Start with the evidence label and the period shown. TraderLobby distinguishes sources

00:00:08.703 --> 00:00:12.404
such as Lab Paper, user Paper, and Live activity. A result from

00:00:12.404 --> 00:00:16.106
recorded historical research is different from a result observed while an account

00:00:16.106 --> 00:00:19.807
was operating. Do not combine those categories into one claim that a

00:00:19.807 --> 00:00:22.275
strategy has already earned that result for everyone.

00:00:22.775 --> 00:00:26.796
Lab Paper and other historical testing help examine an approach using a

00:00:26.796 --> 00:00:30.817
stated setup. Read the test window and the explanation of the method

00:00:30.817 --> 00:00:34.838
when available. Ask what data and assumptions were used. User Paper describes

00:00:34.838 --> 00:00:38.859
simulated user activity, while Live evidence concerns recorded real-mode activity in its

00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:42.880
stated scope. Each source can answer useful questions, but none can show

00:00:42.880 --> 00:00:43.550
the future.

00:00:44.050 --> 00:00:47.762
Check how much evidence sits behind a percentage. A win rate is

00:00:47.762 --> 00:00:51.474
the share of counted outcomes recorded as wins under the displayed definition.

00:00:51.474 --> 00:00:55.186
Nine wins in ten closed trades gives ninety percent, but it is

00:00:55.186 --> 00:00:58.898
a much smaller sample than ninety wins in one hundred trades. More

00:00:58.898 --> 00:01:02.610
observations can provide more context; they still do not guarantee that the

00:01:02.610 --> 00:01:04.775
next outcome will resemble the previous ones.

00:01:05.275 --> 00:01:08.866
Win rate also does not tell you the size of wins and

00:01:08.866 --> 00:01:12.457
losses. Consider a fictional set of ten trades: nine gain one dollar

00:01:12.457 --> 00:01:16.049
each, and one loses twenty dollars. That is nine wins, but the

00:01:16.049 --> 00:01:19.640
combined result is an eleven-dollar loss before any fees. This is why

00:01:19.640 --> 00:01:23.231
a high win rate should lead you to inspect other evidence rather

00:01:23.231 --> 00:01:25.625
than becoming the whole reason for your choice.

00:01:26.125 --> 00:01:29.800
Return describes a change relative to the starting amount or basis used

00:01:29.800 --> 00:01:33.475
by that report. Drawdown describes a decline from a prior high in

00:01:33.475 --> 00:01:37.150
the measured history. Read the period, units, and definitions together. A larger

00:01:37.150 --> 00:01:40.825
return can accompany a larger drawdown. A shorter test may also miss

00:01:40.825 --> 00:01:44.500
conditions that appeared in a longer one, so compare matching windows where

00:01:44.500 --> 00:01:46.950
possible and note the difference when you cannot.

00:01:47.450 --> 00:01:51.313
Bundle evidence needs the same care. Read the included strategies, time window,

00:01:51.313 --> 00:01:55.176
and method rather than adding the best percentage from each member. A

00:01:55.176 --> 00:01:59.039
tested combination may use assumptions about capital and how its parts operate

00:01:59.039 --> 00:02:02.902
together. Your own account can differ in allocation, fees, execution, start time,

00:02:02.902 --> 00:02:06.765
and other activity. A bundle's historical ending value is not an account

00:02:06.765 --> 00:02:08.375
balance waiting to be claimed.

00:02:08.875 --> 00:02:12.664
Keep your personal results separate from marketplace evidence. The app's strategy performance

00:02:12.664 --> 00:02:16.453
view can report results attributed to your own recorded activity, with Paper

00:02:16.453 --> 00:02:20.243
and Live viewed separately. That is a different scope from a catalog-wide

00:02:20.243 --> 00:02:24.032
statistic. An empty history, a missing metric, or a dash is not

00:02:24.032 --> 00:02:27.821
proof of zero risk. It may simply mean the relevant evidence is

00:02:27.821 --> 00:02:29.400
not available in that view.

00:02:29.900 --> 00:02:33.650
For your comparison, write down the source, period, version where known, number

00:02:33.650 --> 00:02:37.400
of closed trades, important metrics, and missing information. Then explain one limitation

00:02:37.400 --> 00:02:41.150
in ordinary words. For example: this option has a short Paper history,

00:02:41.150 --> 00:02:44.900
so I do not yet know how it behaved over a wider

00:02:44.900 --> 00:02:48.650
range of conditions. That is a useful conclusion, even when the percentage

00:02:48.650 --> 00:02:49.275
looks impressive.